'07 Preview: Crew looking to go from worst to first

Soccer Betting Lines

04/05/2007 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's pretty obvious that the Columbus Crew would like to improve on its 2006 season. Last season, the Crew finished with the worst record in Major League Soccer at 8-15-9 in head coach Sigi Schmid's first season at the helm.

"Last year was disappointing," he said. "It was a year that we were bringing players together. We kept acquiring players throughout the year and with the amount of injuries that we had, we never established any cohesion."

In 2007, Schmid has a lineup that he thinks can compete because it is relatively injury free and has had a chance to mesh during preseason training.

"The players are here now," Schmid said. "We aren't gathering as many players. They are getting a chance to play together and getting a chance to know each other in the preseason at a much higher level than they did last year. If we can avoid the injuries we feel pretty confident in some of the attacking balance that we have been able to assemble."

The main attacker that has been added is forward Andy Herron, Chicago's leading scorer last season with nine goals and an assist. The Crew were able to pry him away from the Fire by offering up their first round pick in the 2007 MLS SuperDraft (number two pick overall).

"Andy Herron was a great addition for sure," Schmid said.

Along with the addition of Herron, the Crew have Ricardo Virtuoso, Joseph Ngwenya, Eddie Gaven and Jacob Thomas healthy and in the fold from day one.

"Virtuoso is now back for a whole season," Schmid said. "He joined us in midseason (last year) and wasn't really healthy until the last five games. Having Ngwenya here from day one instead of coming in at midseason and having Thomas healthy from the outset will also be a big help. He had to come from playing a European season last year straight into our season and never really got healthy. Eddie Gaven is also here now in preseason instead of joining us right before the season."

Young forwards Jason Garey and Kei Kamara also have another year of action under their belts, which will only help the Crew.

"All of those things together make us a better offensive team because we are all here at the start now with another year of experience," Schmid said.

One of the Crew's main goals in 2007 will also be to boast an improved midfield to go along with, what they think, is an improved attack.

"We think we have improved ourselves in the midfield with the acquisition of Danny O'Rourke among other players," Schmid said. "Ned Grabavoy and Duncan Oughton are here from day one. Improved play from the middle of the midfield, doing a better job of controlling the tempo of the game and improved offensive production are some things we need to establish."

O'Rourke was brought in on draft day in a trade with Toronto FC that also brought in goalkeeper Will Hesmer in exchange for a partial allocation.

"We expect Danny O'Rourke to be key in our midfield," Schmid said. "He is really the guy for us, the ball winner, the guy that is going to recover the ball for us."

Hesmer, who has been battling a hamstring injury in preseason, is in a three- man competition with Andy Guenbaum and Bill Gaudette to be the club's starting goalkeeper.

"I am very happy with the overall talent level of our goalkeepers," Schmid said. "Gaudette has vastly improved in his third year here in Columbus. Hesmer has had a hamstring injury and has trained the least, but in the time that he has trained he is somebody we are very happy with. He is somebody we have to wait to get healthy. It is an open competition among those three but it is going to be like it is with the forwards, the player who is in form is going to play."

With question marks in goal, in the midfield and up top this preseason, the steadying influence figures to be the backline.

Veteran Frankie Hejduk will team up with Rusty Pierce as the outside backs while Chad Marshall and Marcos Gonzalez will probably team up in the center.

"We played pretty well defensively in that area last year but if we can score some more goals at the other end of the field it will make it a little bit easier for our defense to play well," Schmid said.

If the Crew can stay healthy, mesh as a unit and peak at the right time, a dramatic improvement in 2007 doesn't seem out of the question.

"For us, the group that gets on the field and starts winning and producing good results when the regular season starts, those are the guys that are going to be playing," Schmid said.

Those questions will start to be answered when the Crew host Red Bull New York on April 7 to open the season.

"We have instilled the mindset that winning is a habit and losing is one as well this preseason," Schmid said. "We have won eight preseason games with only one loss (as of March 26) so if we can keep some semblance of that I will be very happy."

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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