Mariners squeak past Red Sox in 11

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rob Johnson went 3-for-5 with three doubles, including a two-run double in the top of the 11th, to lift the Seattle Mariners past the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox, 7-6, in the opener of a three-game set at Fenway Park.

Ramon Ramirez (5-3), who took over on the mound for Boston in the top of the 11th, gave up a single to Franklin Gutierrez and walked Ryan Langerhans to put men on first and second. Chris Woodward moved the runners up a base with a sacrifice bunt. Johnson then stepped to the plate and laced the eventual game- winning hit down the right-field line.

Mark Lowe came on for the M's in the bottom half and made things interesting when he gave up a two-out solo homer to George Kottaras -- the first of his career. J.D. Drew then singled to right, but Lowe got Dustin Pedroia to ground into a fielder's choice to pick up his first save of the season.

Ronny Cedeno went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run for the Mariners, who have won four of six. Jose Lopez went 3-for-5 with a solo homer and a double for Seattle, which improved to 4-3 on a nine-game road trip. Langerhans had a pair of doubles and scored twice.

Felix Hernandez was strong in seven frames, remaining unbeaten in his last eight starts, allowing three runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts and two walks to take the no-decision for the Mariners. Chris Jakubauskas (5-5) tossed a scoreless ninth and 10th to collect the win.

Nick Green had a pair of doubles, including a two-run hit in the bottom of the eighth to tie the tilt, for the Red Sox, who have alternated wins and losses in their last six games. Drew added a solo homer for Boston, which started a 10-game homestand on Friday.

Tim Wakefield went eight frames, giving up five runs on 10 hits with three strikeouts to take the no-decision for the Red Sox. Wakefield made the 383rd start of his Boston career on Friday, passing Roger Clemens for the most in club history.

Ahead, 5-3, the M's sent Sean White to the mound to begin the bottom of the eighth, but he quickly ran into trouble. After getting David Ortiz to fly out, White walked Jason Bay and gave up a single to Mark Kotsay to put men on first and second. Shawn Kelley, who was activated from the 15-day DL on Friday, then took over on the bump and got Jacoby Ellsbury to fly out, but Green stepped to the plate and stroked a two-run double off the top of the Green Monster to tie the contest at five.

Manny Delcarmen retired Seattle in order in the top of the ninth, while Jakubauskas retired the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the bottom of the inning to send the game into extra frames.

The Red Sox drew first blood with a pair of runs in the first inning. Pedroia singled, and Ortiz walked to put men on first and second with two outs. Bay then stroked an RBI ground-rule double to right field. With Kotsay batting, Ortiz crossed the plate on a wild pitch from Hernandez for an early two-run cushion.

Seattle scored a run in the third to cut the deficit in half. Johnson doubled off the Green Monster, advanced to third on Ichiro Suzuki's single and scored on Russell Branyan's single to right.

The Mariners plated three runs in the fourth to take a 4-2 lead. Langerhans started things with a one-out double to center and scored two batters later when Johnson doubled off the Green Monster. Cedeno then stepped to the plate and drove a Wakefield offering over the wall in center.

Boston put men on second and third with two outs in the sixth, but Hernandez struck out Green looking to end the threat.

Drew's solo shot to center in the seventh brought the Red Sox within one, 4-3, but Lopez started the eighth with a homer over the Green Monster to restore Seattle's two run lead.

Game Notes

To make room on the roster for Kelley, the Mariners optioned infielder Mike Carp to Triple-A Tacoma on Friday...Seattle won two of three games from the Red Sox at Safeco Field from May 15-17 but are just 6-17 over their last 23 visits to Fenway Park. Seattle has not taken a series in Boston since winning two of three tests from August 14-16, 2001...Boston owns a league-best 35-11 mark at home this year.

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NCAA Football Betting

Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)

"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."

Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins

There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.

Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins

Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.

USC Trojans - 10.5 wins

A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.

Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy

Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.

"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."

Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1

The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.

Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1

If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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